Spatiotemporal Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Impact on Landscape Patterns in the Colombian Coffee Cultural Landscape (2014–2034)

Urban expansion and deforestation are significantly altering the Colombian Coffee Cultural Landscape (CCLC), a UNESCO World Heritage site, with urban areas projected to increase from 1.46% in 2014 to 15.64% by 2034, while forest cover is expected to decline by 77.8%. Concurrently, coffee-growing areas may shrink from 77.91% in 2019 to 68.40% by 2034, leading to heightened landscape fragmentation and spatial heterogeneity. The study employed a hybrid Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) model, validated with multispectral Landsat 8 and Synthetic Aperture Radar (Sentinel-1) data, achieving high accuracy (Kappa coefficient of 0.84). These findings underscore the urgent need for conservation strategies to mitigate anthropogenic pressures on this culturally significant landscape.

Rojas Celis, A. P., Shen, J., & Martinez Otalora, J. D. (2025). Spatiotemporal Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Impact on Landscape Patterns in the Colombian Coffee Cultural Landscape (2014–2034). Land, 14(5), 1045. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14051045