Integrating Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change Projections to Assess Future Hydrological Responses: A CMIP6-Based Multi-Scenario Approach in the Omo–Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia

Future climate and land use changes could significantly impact the Omo–Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia. Research predicts up to 24% reduction in rainfall and a 21% increase in evapotranspiration by 2080 under various scenarios. Maximum temperatures (Tmax) are projected to rise by 5.1% to 20.7%, while minimum temperatures (Tmin) could increase by up to 48.2%. These changes may alter surface and subsurface hydrology, reservoir sedimentation, hydroelectric power generation, and agricultural production. The study integrated historical meteorological data, projected land use/land cover changes from MOLUSCE, and climate scenarios from CMIP6 global models. It evaluated model performance using metrics like Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). Recommendations include developing robust water resource management plans, promoting afforestation, and strengthening monitoring systems to mitigate long-term ecological impacts.

Lukas, P., Melesse, A. M., & Kenea, T. T. (2025). Integrating Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change Projections to Assess Future Hydrological Responses: A CMIP6-Based Multi-Scenario Approach in the Omo–Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia. Climate, 13(3), 51. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030051