Performance of imputation-based models in predicting breeding population trend of a near-threatened bird in changing water regime: A 36-year long-term case study of Painted Stork, Mycteria leucocephala

A near-80% decline in the breeding population of the Painted Stork (Mycteria leucocephala) at Keoladeo National Park, India, over 36 years (1980–2015), was attributed to local water scarcity rather than regional rainfall changes. The study used Multiple Imputation Chained Equation (MICE) to address missing data in long-term census records and Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) to analyze population trends. Findings revealed that local water availability—specifically, a minimum of 200–300 million cubic feet per nesting season—was critical for sustaining the species, with the most severe decline occurring during frequent droughts (2000–2009). Despite slight regional rainfall increases, the population remained below its long-term mean (~726) post-1989, except in three exceptional years. This underscores the vulnerability of near-threatened species to localized hydrological changes.

Dwevedi, R., Deo, V., Sethy, J., Gupta, R., & Mylswamy, M. (2021). Performance of imputation-based models in predicting breeding population trend of a near-threatened bird in changing water regime: A 36-year long-term case study of Painted Stork, Mycteria leucocephala. Journal of Applied and Natural Science, 13(3), 1072–1082. https://doi.org/10.31018/jans.v13i3.2876