Projected Lifetime Cancer Risks from Exposure to Regional Radioactive Fallout in the Marshall Islands

A comprehensive analysis projects that approximately 1.6% of all cancers among Marshall Islands residents may be attributable to radiation exposure from nuclear tests conducted at Bikini and Enewetak Atolls between 1948-1958, with a 90% uncertainty range of 0.4% to 3.4%. This study represents the first detailed assessment of cancer risks linked to regional radioactive fallout, using advanced dose-response models based on data from the National Research Council and the National Institutes of Health. The research estimates that 55% of cancers in 82 individuals exposed in 1954 on Rongelap and Ailinginae Atolls could be radiation-related, while risks for other populations vary significantly by location and exposure conditions. Notably, thyroid cancer and leukemia show higher attributable risks, with variations ranging from 12% to 95% and 2% to 78%, respectively, depending on the atoll. This analysis provides the most precise dose reconstruction to date, incorporating data from all nuclear tests and populations across the Marshall Islands.

Land, C. E., Bouville, A., Apostoaei, I., & Simon, S. L. (2010). PROJECTED LIFETIME CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO REGIONAL RADIOACTIVE FALLOUT IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. Health Physics, 99(2), 201–215. https://doi.org/10.1097/hp.0b013e3181dc4e84