Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis

A study on the Namib Sand Sea reveals that Welwitschia mirabilis, a keystone species of the Namib Desert, serves as a sentinel for climate change impacts. Research indicates that the thermal niche historically occupied by this plant will become nearly unavailable in northern Namibia within 30 years due to climate change. This shift is strongly correlated with declining plant health, reduced recruitment, and increased adult mortality, challenging simple geographical gradients. The study combines field measurements of population traits with ecological niche modeling to predict climate suitability changes, offering a spatially explicit approach to identify sentinel species and detect population responses to climate change in other ecosystems.

Bombi, P., Salvi, D., Shuuya, T., Vignoli, L., & Wassenaar, T. (2021). Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis. Plos One, 16(11), e0259767. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259767