How safe is Acropolis of Athens and its monuments to low probability earthquakes?

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) reveals that the Acropolis of Athens and its monuments, including the Parthenon, exhibit significant resilience to low-probability earthquakes with return periods of 2,500 to 10,000 years. The study leverages the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and long-term accelerometric data from the Acropolis hill to assess site-specific seismic effects. Findings indicate that while the monuments demonstrate a robust safety margin, the perimetric retaining walls require closer examination due to their vulnerability under extreme seismic conditions. This research underscores the importance of integrating probabilistic hazard models with on-site data for heritage site preservation.

Pitilakis, K., Karafagka, S., Karatzetzou, A., Riga, E., Manakou, M., & Eleftheriou, V. (2022). How safe is Acropolis of Athens and its monuments to low probability earthquakes? Geotechnical Engineering for the Preservation of Monuments and Historic Sites III, 713–724. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003308867-53