Archetypes of tropical moist forest change

Tropical moist forests (TMFs) remain under significant pressure, with deforestation persisting at high rates and proving difficult to reverse once elevated levels are reached. This study identifies seven archetypes of forest state and change in TMFs, covering approximately 2.8 billion hectares globally. It reveals that less than a third of TMFs are intact, while about a quarter face high deforestation, with Southeast Asia showing higher proportions of degraded forests and Central/South America having the largest absolute deforestation areas. Local context plays a crucial role in shaping deforestation patterns, which do not clearly link to specific land-use conversions. The study also highlights that low accessibility passively protects 34% of intact forest landscapes with good agricultural suitability, particularly in the Amazon, Congo Basin, and southern New Guinea. This research provides a diagnostic framework for policy interventions, supported by archetype analysis, and underpins four country-specific reports on deforestation policies.

De Sy, V., Angelsen, A., Naime, J., Herold, M., Ladewig, M., Robiglio, V., Vergara, K., & Martius, C. (2026). Archetypes of tropical moist forest change. https://doi.org/10.17528/cifor-icraf/009455