Modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere

In the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, wildfire occurrence is significantly driven by anthropic factors such as population density and forest edge proximity. A study modeling fire events from 2009 to 2013 revealed that areas with higher human presence and fragmented forests are more prone to fires, with a predictive model accuracy of AUC = 0.71 when validated against 2014-2015 data. The research highlights the need for targeted fire management strategies in high-risk zones, particularly those near populated areas or forest edges, while suggesting future models incorporate direct fuel measurements for improved precision.

Farfán Gutiérrez, M., Pérez-Salicrup, D. R., Flamenco-Sandoval, A., Nicasio-Arzeta, S., Mas, J.-F., & Ramírez Ramírez, I. (2018). Modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere. Madera Y Bosques, 24(3). https://doi.org/10.21829/myb.2018.2431591