Sensitivity of hydrological ensemble forecasts to different sources and temporal resolutions of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts: flash flood case studies in the Cévennes‐Vivarais region (Southern France)

A study on the Cévennes-Vivarais region reveals that merging probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF) from different sources and temporal resolutions significantly enhances flash flood discharge predictions. The research found that 6-hour ensemble prediction systems better capture rainfall dynamics compared to daily analogy-based PQPF, which tend to underestimate rainfall variability. By combining these data sources, the study demonstrated a substantial improvement in hydrological forecast performance, reducing the need for sophisticated hourly rainfall generators. This approach provides more accurate and reliable early warnings for flash floods in small to mid-sized catchments.

Marty, R., Zin, I., & Obled, Ch. (2012). Sensitivity of hydrological ensemble forecasts to different sources and temporal resolutions of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts: flash flood case studies in the Cévennes‐Vivarais region (Southern France). Hydrological Processes, 27(1), 33–44. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9543