Sensitivity Analysis of Baseline Carbon Estimates for a Bolivian REDD Initiative (The Noel Kempff Mercado National Park Climate Action Project)

A sensitivity analysis reveals that carbon baseline estimates for the Noel Kempff Mercado National Park REDD+ initiative are highly sensitive to temporal calibration periods and geographic scope, with deforestation rates and avoided carbon emissions most influenced by these factors. The study used a spatially explicit modeling approach, combining remote sensing data with the GEOMOD land-use change model, to simulate deforestation dynamics under a business-as-usual scenario. Findings underscore the critical role of methodological choices in reducing uncertainty and enhancing the robustness of carbon accounting in REDD+ projects. This research advances measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems by demonstrating how sensitivity analysis can improve transparency, credibility, and reproducibility in carbon baseline estimation.

Perez-Hurtado, C. J. (2011). Sensitivity Analysis of Baseline Carbon Estimates for a Bolivian REDD Initiative (The Noel Kempff Mercado National Park Climate Action Project) (Version 1.0) [Zenodo]. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.19723103