A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting – case study in the Cévennes region

A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting demonstrates the potential for complementary systems to provide decision makers with increasingly accurate information as events near, despite significant uncertainty in meteorological forecasts. The study, conducted within the IMPRINTS project and focusing on a 2008 flash flood event in the Cévennes region of France, combines methodologies from the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for early European-scale indications with an adapted data-based mechanistic model (DBM) to forecast river levels up to 12 hours ahead. While uncertainty in meteorological forecasts affects outcomes, early-stage uncertain results remain valuable for raising preparedness and prompting timely actions.

Alfieri, L., Smith, P. J., Thielen-del Pozo, J., & Beven, K. J. (2011). A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting – case study in the Cévennes region. Advances in Geosciences, 29, 13–20. https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-13-2011