Projected Responses of Tidal Dynamics in the North Sea to Sea-Level Rise and Morphological Changes in the Wadden Sea

Sea-level rise (SLR) of up to 2.0 meters by the end of the century could significantly alter tidal dynamics in the North Sea, with substantial regional variations depending on vertical accretion rates in the Wadden Sea's intertidal flats. The study found that while the spatial pattern of M2 tide amplitude changes remains stable for a moderate SLR (0.8 m), sensitivity to accretion rates is pronounced, particularly in the North Frisian Wadden Sea and remote areas like the Skagerrak. Without vertical accretion, regions such as the German Bight and Danish west coast may experience reduced M2 amplitudes, whereas keeping up with SLR could lead to increases. Extreme scenarios (SLR of 2.0 m) amplify these effects, with local tidal wave distortions potentially enhancing sediment import in German estuaries. These findings underscore critical implications for coastal protection and navigation strategies.

Jordan, C., Visscher, J., & Schlurmann, T. (2021). Projected Responses of Tidal Dynamics in the North Sea to Sea-Level Rise and Morphological Changes in the Wadden Sea. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.685758