Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios

A novel model successfully links wading bird foraging populations in Everglades National Park (ENP) to seasonal hydrologic conditions, offering critical insights for restoration efforts. The study identifies key predictors such as water depth at the start of the nesting season, average dry season water levels, and the number of reversals from dry season recession, all of which influence prey availability. Using a nonlinear hierarchical Bayesian model with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation, researchers analyzed long-term hydrologic data (1952–2006) to reveal decadal fluctuations in bird populations tied to hydroclimatic variability. Simulations under alternative water management scenarios demonstrate how posterior probability distributions of foraging birds can guide adaptive management strategies, bridging seasonal rainfall forecasts with ecological outcomes.

Kwon, H.-H., Lall, U., & Engel, V. (2011). Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios. Water Resources Research, 47(9). Portico. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010wr009552