Sustainable Development Scenarios in the Danube Delta—A Pilot Methodology for Decision Makers

A moderate intensification of aquaculture, combined with ecological agriculture and slow tourism, offers the most sustainable development pathway for the Danube Delta, Europe's second-largest wetland. This approach minimizes negative impacts on water quality while maintaining ecosystem services like flood protection and nutrient recycling. The study developed a novel methodology that integrates stakeholder consultations, expert validation, and system dynamics modeling to address social, economic, and environmental challenges. By simulating scenarios and engaging stakeholders, the research provides actionable policy recommendations for balancing sector-specific strategies—such as fishing, agriculture, and tourism—while preventing conflicts. This pilot model serves as a blueprint for sustainable decision-making in complex social-ecological systems like UNESCO World Heritage Sites.

Lazar, L., Rodino, S., Pop, R., Tiller, R., D’Haese, N., Viaene, P., & De Kok, J.-L. (2022). Sustainable Development Scenarios in the Danube Delta—A Pilot Methodology for Decision Makers. Water, 14(21), 3484. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14213484