Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan – Pamir – North Karakoram

A new study projects contrasting streamflow regimes across the Tien Shan–Pamir–North Karakoram mountain complex, which supplies water to 42 million people. By the late 21st century, eastern slope basins are expected to see a 28% increase in streamflow (range: 9–44%), driven primarily by ice melt (39%, range: 25–65%). In contrast, western slopes may experience a 5% decrease (−24 to 16%) due to reduced precipitation and higher evapotranspiration. The findings, derived from CMIP5 climate projections integrated into a hydrological model, highlight divergent water availability impacts—potential benefits for degraded ecosystems in Xinjiang, China, but risks for Central Asian rivers, necessitating adaptive management strategies.

Luo, Y., Wang, X., Piao, S., Sun, L., Ciais, P., Zhang, Y., Ma, C., Gan, R., & He, C. (2018). Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan – Pamir – North Karakoram. Scientific Reports, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34829-2