Environmental Controls of Rainforest Tree Communities: Climate Change Implications for the Gondwana Rainforests

A 15-year study of the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia reveals significant floristic changes driven by elevation-dependent environmental controls. High-elevation tree communities (≥ 900 m) show persistent in situ recruitment patterns, closely mirroring canopy composition, and are primarily influenced by precipitation and cloud water inputs, which mitigate moisture stress. In contrast, mid-to-low elevations (≤ 700 m) exhibit distinct understorey recruit compositions differing from the established canopy, linked to higher temperatures, evaporation, and lower humidity. These changes, particularly pronounced at low elevations (300 m), are exacerbated by drought and bushfires, suggesting a trajectory toward future community turnover. Climate projections indicate increasing moisture stress and fire risk, potentially threatening the Outstanding Universal Value of this UNESCO World Heritage Area. The study used multivariate analyses to examine shifts in tree community composition and their environmental drivers, providing critical insights for management strategies.

Laidlaw, M. J. (2026). Environmental Controls of Rainforest Tree Communities: Climate Change Implications for the Gondwana Rainforests. Applied Vegetation Science, 29(3). Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/avsc.70088