Evaluation of the impact of input uncertainty on urban building energy simulations using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

A novel approach combining physics-based Urban Building Energy Models (UBEMs) with Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis significantly improves the accuracy of urban energy simulations. By incorporating uncertainty in key input parameters—such as operational, geometrical, and physical attributes—the method reduces overestimation of residential building peak loads from 80% to 25% and decreases deviation in energy needs calculations from 18% to 10%. Tested on a heterogeneous sample of buildings in Verona (Italy) and later applied to a district in Milan with over 600 buildings, the approach demonstrates that accounting for input uncertainty is critical for reliable urban energy modeling. This advancement addresses longstanding challenges posed by unreliable data, offering a more robust framework for simulating energy demand under varying urban scenarios.

Prataviera, E., Vivian, J., Lombardo, G., & Zarrella, A. (2022). Evaluation of the impact of input uncertainty on urban building energy simulations using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Applied Energy, 311, 118691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118691