Retrospective validation of a lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano

A retrospective validation method for long-term lava-flow hazard maps at Mount Etna, Europe's most active volcano, demonstrates that such maps can accurately predict areas at risk of destructive volcanic processes. The study divided the volcano into ten probability classes based on simulated lava-flow paths and found strong agreement between predicted and actual lava-flow coverage post-1981 using two fitting scores. The approach involved identifying high-probability vent regions, characterizing eruption types for numerical simulations with the MAGFLOW model, and computing eruptive probabilities to construct the hazard map.

Cappello, A., Vicari, A., & Del Negro, C. (2011). Retrospective validation of a lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano. Annals of Geophysics, 54(5). https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-5345