Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra

Climate change is expected to significantly alter the distribution of four endemic Commiphora species on Socotra Island, with two species facing potential strong reductions in suitable habitats and upward shifts in elevation. The study used three modeling approaches (GAM, MaxEnt, RandomForest) to assess current and future distributions under CMIP6 climate scenarios, revealing that soil clay content and winter precipitation are key factors for three of the species, while seasonal precipitation and temperature influence another. Projections indicate stability or expansion for two species but severe contraction for Commiphora socotrana and C. planifrons. These findings underscore the urgent need to prioritize conservation efforts to protect Socotra's unique terrestrial ecosystems and endemic tree species.

La Montagna, D., Attorre, F., Hamdiah, S., Maděra, P., Malatesta, L., Vahalík, P., Van Damme, K., & De Sanctis, M. (2023). Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1183858