Unraveling Trade‐Offs Among Reforestation, Urbanization, and Food Security in the South China Karst Region: How Can a Hinterland Province Achieve SDGs?

A significant food deficit of 4.9–9.8 million tonnes, equivalent to the needs of 10.2–20.6 million people, is projected for South China Karst by 2030, primarily driven by population growth and urbanization rather than reforestation policies. This study, using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and land use competition frameworks, reveals that while large-scale reforestation enhances ecosystem services, it exacerbates local food shortages by reducing cropland, increasing reliance on imports and posing risks to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings underscore the need for integrated governance across multiple scales to balance socio-economic development with environmental sustainability in less-developed hinterland regions.

Qiu, S., Peng, J., Quine, T. A., Green, S. M., Liu, H., Liu, Y., Hartley, I. P., & Meersmans, J. (2022). Unraveling Trade‐Offs Among Reforestation, Urbanization, and Food Security in the South China Karst Region: How Can a Hinterland Province Achieve SDGs? Earth’s Future, 10(12). Portico. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002867