Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

Projected sea-level rise by 2100 may result in significantly smaller area losses for the Sundarbans mangrove forest in Bangladesh compared to previous estimates, with potential net losses ranging from 81–178 km² under a low scenario (0.46 m rise) to 583–1393 km² under a high scenario (1.48 m rise). The study used remote sensing, field measurements, geographic information systems, and simulation modeling with the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), which was calibrated against observed area losses from 2000 to 2010. Findings suggest that erosion may remain the dominant loss driver under certain scenarios, while inundation due to sea-level rise could become dominant only under the highest projected rises.

Payo, A., Mukhopadhyay, A., Hazra, S., Ghosh, T., Ghosh, S., Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., Bricheno, L., Wolf, J., Kay, S., Lázár, A. N., & Haque, A. (2016). Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100. Climatic Change, 139(2), 279–291. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1769-z