Predicting the Potential Current and Future Distribution of the Endangered Endemic Vascular Plant Primula boveana Decne. ex Duby in Egypt

A rare and endangered plant, Primula boveana, survives exclusively in the Saint Catherine Protectorate of Egypt. This study predicts its current and future distribution using environmental data, revealing that only 796 individuals exist across a tiny area (250 m²), with key factors including elevation, precipitation, temperature, and soil pH. Field surveys confirmed five previously recorded localities as extinct while no new populations were found. Under climate change scenarios, P. boveana's range may shift upward, contracting at lower elevations but expanding above 2000 meters in southern parts. Conservation efforts are urgently needed, with recommendations for in situ reinforcement and reintroduction actions to protect this critically endangered species.

Abdelaal, M., Fois, M., Dakhil, M. A., Bacchetta, G., & El-Sherbeny, G. A. (2020). Predicting the Potential Current and Future Distribution of the Endangered Endemic Vascular Plant Primula boveana Decne. ex Duby in Egypt. Plants, 9(8), 957. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants9080957