Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios

A structured expert elicitation exercise conducted remotely for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion, revealed that an uncommon effusive eruption scenario—with a vent outside the caldera and within inhabited areas—would likely present distinct characteristics compared to recent eruptions. Involving 28 experts from nine countries, this study demonstrated the feasibility of tele-elicitation for volcanic crisis management, providing critical uncertainty ranges for hazard-related questions such as eruption probability and lava flow timing. The findings underscore the importance of integrating well-prepared expert elicitations into civil protection evacuation plans to enhance disaster response procedures.

Tadini, A., Harris, A., Morin, J., Bevilacqua, A., Peltier, A., Aspinall, W., Ciolli, S., Bachèlery, P., Bernard, B., Biren, J., Brum da Silveira, A., Cayol, V., Chevrel, O., Coppola, D., Dietterich, H., Donovan, A., Dorado, O., Drenne, S., Dupéré, O., et al. (2022). Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios. Volcanica, 5(1), 105–131. https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.05.01.105131