Should Swedish sea level planners worry more about mean sea level rise or sea level extremes?

Swedish coastal spatial planning should prioritize sea level extremes over mean sea level rise for short-term (decades-long) planning, while long-term (century-end) strategies must account for the risk of high sea level rise. Current methods underestimate flood risks by ignoring projection and emission scenario uncertainties, time dependence, and extreme events. This study applies enhanced methods to Swedish coastal locations, revealing that extreme events dominate flood risk in shorter timeframes, whereas sustained high sea levels pose greater threats over longer periods. These findings underscore the need for adaptive planning to mitigate future flood risks effectively.

Hieronymus, M., & Kalén, O. (2022). Should Swedish sea level planners worry more about mean sea level rise or sea level extremes? Ambio, 51(11), 2325–2332. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01748-6