Predicting the effect of global warming on the distribution of a polyphagous tree parasite, Orobanche laxissima, based on climatic and ecological data

Global warming is projected to significantly expand the range of Orobanche laxissima, a polyphagous tree parasite affecting 14 species in the Caucasus. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM), researchers found that this parasite could increase its distribution by 30% to 52%, particularly in regions like the Black Sea and northern Turkey, unless extreme climate scenarios (SSP5–8.5) lead to a 21–35% contraction. The study also revealed that O. laxissima's glacial range was 82% smaller than its current range, with precipitation during the driest month being a critical factor for its survival. Monitoring parasite populations could serve as an early indicator of climate change impacts on host trees and unique deciduous forest communities, including UNESCO-listed Colchic rainforests.

Piwowarczyk, R., & Kolanowska, M. (2023). Predicting the effect of global warming on the distribution of a polyphagous tree parasite, Orobanche laxissima, based on climatic and ecological data. Global Ecology and Conservation, 44, e02486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02486