Reciprocal Common Garden Altitudinal Transplants Reveal Potential Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Abies religiosa Populations in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve Overwintering Sites

Climate change is projected to cause severe mortality in young Abies religiosa seedlings within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR), with a 400 m upward altitudinal shift appearing as a feasible management action. This study used reciprocal altitudinal transplants of A. religiosa seedlings across three contrasting altitudes (3400, 3000, and 2600 m a.s.l.) to assess the impacts of climatic mismatch on survival and growth. Findings indicated that transferring seedlings to warmer, drier sites resulted in approximately 45% mortality, whereas shifting to colder, wetter sites maintained near 95% survival. The study highlighted the critical role of seasonal dryness indices in determining seedling performance, with the rainy season index being crucial for survival and the cold-dry season index influencing aerial biomass growth.

Cruzado-Vargas, A., Blanco-García, A., Lindig-Cisneros, R., Gómez-Romero, M., Lopez-Toledo, L., de la Barrera, E., & Sáenz-Romero, C. (2021). Reciprocal Common Garden Altitudinal Transplants Reveal Potential Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Abies religiosa Populations in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve Overwintering Sites. Forests, 12(1), 69. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12010069