The current trajectory of king penguin ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) chick numbers on Macquarie Island in relation to environmental conditions

King penguin chick numbers on Macquarie Island have been declining at a rate of 1.06 ± 0.03% annually since 2007, marking the end of a rapid population increase observed from 1930 to 1980. Annual fluctuations in chick numbers, ranging from 33,513 to 78,714, were negatively correlated with environmental factors such as heavy rainfall, total rainfall, and maximum east coast wave height during incubation, as well as warmer sea surface temperatures in the penguins' foraging region. While causality remains uncertain due to interannual variability and the long generation time of king penguins, this study highlights a potential shift from population growth to stabilization or decline. Ongoing monitoring is crucial to determine the trajectory of this UNESCO-listed site's breeding population.

Pascoe, P., Raymond, B., Carmichael, N., & McInnes, J. (2022). The current trajectory of king penguin ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) chick numbers on Macquarie Island in relation to environmental conditions. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 79(7), 2084–2092. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsac139