Modelling and Forecasting Zimbabwe’s Tourist Arrivals Using Time Series Method: A Case Study of Victoria Falls Rainforest

A study on Victoria Falls Rainforest, one of the Seven Natural Wonders of the World, reveals that tourist arrivals in Zimbabwe exhibit significant seasonality and upward trends with increasing variance over time. Researchers applied a SARIMA (2, 1, 0)(2, 0, 0)12 model to monthly data from 2006 to 2017, which outperformed other forecasting methods and provided reasonable two-year out-of-sample forecasts indicating continued growth in tourist arrivals. This quantitative approach offers tourism stakeholders, investors, and government agencies actionable insights for infrastructure development, accommodation planning, and addressing foreign currency challenges.

Makoni, T., & Chikobvu, D. (2018). Modelling and Forecasting Zimbabwe’s Tourist Arrivals Using Time Series Method: A Case Study of Victoria Falls Rainforest. Southern African Business Review, 22. https://doi.org/10.25159/1998-8125/3791