Assessing and updating the environmental and conservation status of three endangered endemic plants in light of potential climate change in Saint Catherine Protectorate, Egypt

Climate change is reshaping the distribution of three critically endangered endemic plants in Egypt’s Saint Catherine Protectorate, with projections indicating potential range contractions for Origanum syriacum subsp. sinaicum and expansions for Anarrhinum forskaohlii subsp. pubescens and Polygala sinaica var. sinaica under future scenarios. Using species distribution models (SDMs) incorporating bioclimatic and soil variables, researchers identified wind, temperature, moisture, and elevation as key determinants of their habitats. The study highlights the urgent need for conservation measures—such as reintroduction programs and habitat protection—to mitigate threats from drought and rising temperatures, emphasizing the vulnerability of these plants to climate-driven ecosystem shifts.

El-Khalafy, M. M., Abo Hatab, A. S., Al-Sodany, Y. M., Shaltout, K. H., & Bedair, H. M. (2025). Assessing and updating the environmental and conservation status of three endangered endemic plants in light of potential climate change in Saint Catherine Protectorate, Egypt. BMC Plant Biology, 25(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12870-025-07127-z