Modeling the effects of eruptive and seismic activities on flank instability at Mount Etna, Italy

A study modeling the effects of seismic and magmatic activities on flank instability at Mount Etna, Italy, reveals that high-magnitude near-field earthquakes (with a return time of approximately 103 years) and vertical magma dike ascent beneath the volcano summit can induce significant strain, potentially leading to displacements of tens of centimeters in the summit area and stress releases up to 107 Pascals. These findings suggest that such events may trigger major effusive flank eruptions but do not necessarily lead to catastrophic flank collapses. The research employed a 2-D finite difference method numerical modeling approach, incorporating data on seismic actions (including near-field and far-field earthquakes) and magmatic pressure changes from lava fountains and dike ascent. Model results were validated against monitoring data and recent eruptive activity, providing insights crucial for risk assessment in densely populated volcanic regions.

Bozzano, F., Gaeta, M., Lenti, L., Martino, S., Paciello, A., Palladino, D. M., & Sottili, G. (2013). Modeling the effects of eruptive and seismic activities on flank instability at Mount Etna, Italy. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 118(10), 5252–5273. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrb.50377