Predicting Spruce Taiga Distribution in Northeast Asia Using Species Distribution Models: Glacial Refugia, Mid-Holocene Expansion and Future Predictions for Global Warming

Climate warming is projected to significantly alter the distribution of Jezo spruce (Picea jezoensis), a dominant conifer in Northeast Asia's spruce taiga forests, with potential range shifts exceeding those observed during past climate epochs. Using Random Forest machine learning models, researchers estimated that current suitable climatic conditions for P. jezoensis span 500,000 km², while both MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 climate models indicate a southward shift during the Last Glacial Maximum (~21,000 years ago) at latitudes of 35–45° N. Projections for 2070 suggest substantial range changes due to warming, with overlapping climatic ranges identifying potential refugia in the Changbai Mountains, Japanese Alps, Hokkaido, and Sikhote-Alin Mountains. These findings highlight critical areas for conserving genetic diversity through artificial forest stands, addressing both historical and future climate impacts on taiga ecosystems.

Korznikov, K., Petrenko, T., Kislov, D., Krestov, P., & Doležal, J. (2023). Predicting Spruce Taiga Distribution in Northeast Asia Using Species Distribution Models: Glacial Refugia, Mid-Holocene Expansion and Future Predictions for Global Warming. Forests, 14(2), 219. https://doi.org/10.3390/f14020219