Optimal strategies to protect a sub-population at risk due to an established epidemic

Optimal protection of high-value sub-populations during epidemics should often prioritize the at-risk region itself, but timing can shift as outbreaks grow. Using Redwood National Park and its surrounding buffer zone as a case study for sudden oak death (caused by Phytophthora ramorum), researchers applied optimal control theory to determine cost-effective strategies under budget constraints and epidemiological uncertainty. They found that focusing resources within the park is frequently the best approach, but switching priority from the buffer region to the high-value area may become necessary as local outbreaks escalate. The study also highlights how robust these strategies are against potential misestimations of key parameters.

Bussell, E. H., & Cunniffe, N. J. (2022). Optimal strategies to protect a sub-population at risk due to an established epidemic. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 19(186). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0718