A Combined Stochastic–Analytical Method for the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Spring Discharge

Climate change is projected to intensify the extremes of spring discharge in karstic aquifers, with increasing peak discharges and decreasing baseflow discharges throughout the 21st century. A novel combined stochastic–analytical modeling methodology was developed to predict these changes using regional climate model (RCM) projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, bias-corrected against historical data. Applied to the Bukovica spring catchment in Durmitor National Park, Montenegro, the model revealed that both moderate and pessimistic CO2 emission scenarios (RCP 45 and RCP 85) would exacerbate flood and drought conditions by the end of the century. While annual predicted flood days showed variability depending on the scenario, drought days exhibited a periodic pattern with increasing severity over time, occurring every 5 to 7 years. This methodology offers a promising tool for studying karst aquifers under climate change scenarios.

Kovács, A., & Stevanović, Z. (2023). A Combined Stochastic–Analytical Method for the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Spring Discharge. Water, 15(4), 629. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15040629