Variability of precipitation and temperature in Guanajuato, Mexico

A significant increase in the frequency of extreme heat days—more than doubling—has been observed in Guanajuato, Mexico, between 1979 and 2011, while the number of days with heavy rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile has remained stable. This shift toward hotter conditions, coupled with a near-halving of days with temperatures below the 10th percentile, suggests a growing water scarcity threat to agriculture, a key economic activity in the region. The study also reveals that precipitation patterns are strongly influenced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), with phases 1-3 correlating with above-normal rainfall and phases 4-7 with below-normal rainfall. These findings were derived from surface station data across Guanajuato and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data, analyzing atmospheric anomalies linked to wet and dry conditions.

Barrett, B. S., & Esquivel Longoria, M. I. (2013). Variability of precipitation and temperature in Guanajuato, Mexico. Atmósfera, 26(4), 521–536. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0187-6236(13)71093-2