Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral

A rapid genetic adaptation to warming is possible for the coral Acropora millepora on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), according to a study combining genomics, biophysical modeling, and evolutionary simulations. The research found that high migration rates—matching larval dispersal patterns—facilitate the spread of heat-tolerant alleles southward, preserving local thermal adaptation while enabling region-wide genetic shifts over 100-250 years. However, populations may become increasingly vulnerable to random thermal fluctuations like ENSO cycles or heat waves, aligning with recent bleaching trends. The study suggests that standing genetic variation could drive adaptation, but novel mutations' potential remains uncertain due to unknown genetic parameters and warming rates.

Matz, M. V., Treml, E. A., Aglyamova, G. V., & Bay, L. K. (2018). Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral. PLOS Genetics, 14(4), e1007220. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1007220