Influence of submonthly air–sea coupling on heavy precipitation events in the Western Mediterranean basin

Submonthly air–sea coupling significantly influences heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in the Western Mediterranean, particularly in Valencia (Spain), the Cévennes (France), and Calabria (Italy). Using 24 years of simulations from two atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate models (AORCMs), researchers identified a statistical link between HPE intensity and sea-surface temperature (SST) variations in these regions. The study found that low-level wind changes, driven by surface heat flux adjustments, enhance precipitation sensitivity to SST shifts. Notably, specific HPEs on 28 September 2012 (Valencia), 12 October 2012 (Valencia), and 25–26 October 2012 (Cévennes) were likely affected by this coupling mechanism. The findings underscore the importance of submonthly air–sea interactions in predicting extreme weather events, with implications for climate modeling and risk assessment.

Berthou, S., Mailler, S., Drobinski, P., Arsouze, T., Bastin, S., Béranger, K., Flaounas, E., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Somot, S., & Stéfanon, M. (2016). Influence of submonthly air–sea coupling on heavy precipitation events in the Western Mediterranean basin. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(S1), 453–471. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2717