Identifying abrupt changes and detecting gradual trends of annual rainfall in an Indian arid region under heightened rainfall rise regime

A significant increase in annual rainfall trends has been detected in the Anjar region, an Indian arid area, with post-change point (CP) rainfall magnitudes 2–10 times higher than those observed over a 34-year period. The study identified abrupt CPs using multiple statistical tests, revealing that mean annual rainfall increased by 14–80% after CP, accompanied by a reduction in variability. Trend analysis showed statistically significant increases at four stations, with the Mann-Kendall test indicating strengthening trends over time. These findings suggest that heightened rainfall trends may further intensify, providing critical data for policymakers to address future challenges.

Machiwal, D., Kumar, S., Dayal, D., & Mangalassery, S. (2016). Identifying abrupt changes and detecting gradual trends of annual rainfall in an Indian arid region under heightened rainfall rise regime. International Journal of Climatology, 37(5), 2719–2733. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4875