Earthquake Scenarios for Quito, Ecuador; Cali, Colombia; and Santiago De Los Caballeros, Dominican Republic

Historic city centers of Quito, Ecuador; Cali, Colombia; and Santiago de Los Caballeros, Dominican Republic, are particularly vulnerable to severe earthquake damage, with moderate nearby quakes posing significant economic and social disruption risks. The study developed earthquake scenarios using seismic data, exposure models from the Global Earthquake Model foundation, and local hazard information to assess potential consequences for emergency planning. Findings highlight that while distant subduction earthquakes may be less frequent, nearby faults like Quito's fault system or Santiago's Septentrional fault zone could cause more immediate and widespread impact. The research also underscores gaps in understanding built environment vulnerability, which are critical for improving post-earthquake response strategies.

Chase, R. E., Jaiswal, K. S., Calderon, A., Yepes, H., Goddard, L., & Yepes-Estrada, C. (2023). Earthquake Scenarios for Quito, Ecuador; Cali, Colombia; and Santiago De Los Caballeros, Dominican Republic. Seismological Research Letters, 94(5), 2360–2372. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220249