A 426-year drought history for Western Tian Shan, Central Asia, inferred from tree rings and linkages to the North Atlantic and Indo–West Pacific Oceans

A 426-year drought history for Western Tian Shan, Central Asia, reveals significant correlations between regional drought patterns and global oceanic systems. The study reconstructed the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from tree rings of Picea schrenkiana, identifying distinct dry and wet periods with a strong regional signal validated by split-sample testing. Notable droughts occurred in 1614–1628, 1700–1722, and 1973–1988, while wetter conditions prevailed from 1580–1613 and 1989–present. The reconstruction also highlights spectral peaks at 2–5, 60.2, and 213 years, suggesting periodic drought cycles. Crucially, the study links these drought variations to sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and Indo–West Pacific Oceans, implicating westerly circulation and tropical ocean-atmosphere systems in Central Asian moisture dynamics.

Chen, F., Yuan, Y.-j., Chen, F.-H., Wei, W.-s., Yu, S.-l., Chen, X.-j., Fan, Z.-a., Zhang, R.-b., Zhang, T.-w., Shang, H.-m., & Qin, L. (2013). A 426-year drought history for Western Tian Shan, Central Asia, inferred from tree rings and linkages to the North Atlantic and Indo–West Pacific Oceans. The Holocene, 23(8), 1095–1104. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683613483614