Tourist Arrivals Real-time Prediction Based on IOWA-Gauss Method

A new model for predicting real-time tourist arrivals, combining hierarchical clustering and Gaussian fitting, demonstrates high effectiveness when applied to Jiuzhaigou Valley. This approach significantly advances tourism forecasting by focusing on daily and real-time data, rather than broader inter-annual or seasonal trends. The study reveals distinct patterns in tourist arrival fluctuations through segment analysis, offering a more precise tool for managing visitor flow at UNESCO World Heritage Sites like Jiuzhaigou.

Chen L., Jin M.Z., & He Y.H. (2015). Tourist arrivals real-time prediction based on iowa-gauss method. Chemical Engineering Transactions, 46, 421–426. https://doi.org/10.3303/CET1546071