Suitable climatic habitat changes for Mexican conifers along altitudinal gradients under climatic change scenarios

By 2060, Mexican montane conifers will face significant habitat loss—up to 77%—with the highest elevations hit hardest. Five dominant species, including Abies religiosa (the Monarch butterfly's overwintering host), may need human assistance to migrate upward as their climate niches shift 300–500 meters higher. Using bioclimatic modeling with Random Forests and climate projections from 17 general circulation models under RCP 6.0, researchers found that traditional conservation efforts will be insufficient without active intervention.

Gómez‐Pineda, E., Sáenz‐Romero, C., Ortega‐Rodríguez, J. M., Blanco‐García, A., Madrigal‐Sánchez, X., Lindig‐Cisneros, R., Lopez‐Toledo, L., Pedraza‐Santos, M. E., & Rehfeldt, G. E. (2019). Suitable climatic habitat changes for Mexican conifers along altitudinal gradients under climatic change scenarios. Ecological Applications, 30(2). Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2041