Multi-Scenario Simulation to Predict Ecological Risk Posed by Urban Sprawl with Spontaneous Growth: A Case Study of Quanzhou

Urban expansion in Quanzhou, China, poses significant ecological risks, with industrial-priority development scenarios increasing high-risk areas by 42.5% compared to business-as-usual projections. The study used a Markov chain-integrated patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to predict urban sprawl from 2005 to 2018 and its ecological impacts through 2031, identifying critical risks like water conservation, soil erosion sensitivity, and biodiversity loss. The PLUS model outperformed traditional logistic-based cellular automata models in simulating organic growth patterns, with improved accuracy for urban construction land (91.77% overall) and industrial land (6.5% higher figure of merit). Spatial analysis revealed distinct risk distributions under different development scenarios, emphasizing the need to decentralize urban growth and prioritize sustainable industrial expansion.

Liao, J., Tang, L., & Shao, G. (2022). Multi-Scenario Simulation to Predict Ecological Risk Posed by Urban Sprawl with Spontaneous Growth: A Case Study of Quanzhou. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(22), 15358. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215358