GIS-Based Visitor Count Prediction and Environmental Susceptibility Zoning in Protected Areas: A Case Study in Plitvice Lakes National Park, Croatia

A novel GIS-based method for environmental susceptibility zoning effectively predicts visitor counts and assesses environmental impacts in protected areas, with moderate accuracy. Applied to Plitvice Lakes National Park—Croatia's oldest and largest national park—the approach integrated route density and historical visitor data over 20 years, identifying the central part of the park as the most vulnerable due to high visitor load, primarily within moderately restricted zones. The study demonstrated that while current environmental susceptibility is stable, these findings offer critical insights for adaptive park management strategies.

Jurišić, M., Plaščak, I., Rendulić, Ž., & Radočaj, D. (2023). GIS-Based Visitor Count Prediction and Environmental Susceptibility Zoning in Protected Areas: A Case Study in Plitvice Lakes National Park, Croatia. Sustainability, 15(2), 1625. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15021625