Quantifying the changes and driving factors of thermokarst hazards in the Hoh Xil region of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

A marked increase in thermokarst hazards, including thermokarst lakes (TLs) and retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS), has been quantified in the fragile alpine ecosystem of Qinghai Hoh Xil. These changes are driven by complex interactions between precipitation, mean annual ground temperature (MAGT), ice content, clay content, soil moisture, thaw index change rate, and precipitation change rate. GeoDetector models revealed that no single factor dominates the spatial pattern of these hazards at the regional scale, highlighting intricate feedbacks between climate warming and permafrost degradation. This study offers critical insights into predicting future impacts on carbon cycling and infrastructure in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.

Shi, Y., Niu, F., Zhang, X., Hu, X., Pang, D., & Gao, L. (2026). Quantifying the changes and driving factors of thermokarst hazards in the Hoh Xil region of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 17(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2026.2731734