Domino effect of a natural cascade alpine lake system on the Third Pole

A domino effect in the Qinghai Hoh Xil alpine lake system, triggered by climate change and geological events, has significantly altered the region's hydrology. The study, using advanced cryosphere-hydrology-lake-dam modeling, found that increased precipitation, accelerated ice and snow melting, and short-term heavy precipitation or earthquake events caused a 2011 outburst in Lake Zonag. This led to a quadrupling of Lake Yanhu's area due to tripling inflows from 0.25 km³/year (1999-2010) to 0.76 km³/year (2012-2018). Permafrost degradation, while marginally impacting lake inflows, was critical for lakeshore stability. The findings highlight a high-risk scenario for the downstream Qinghai-Tibet Railway, emphasizing the need for timely adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Wang, L., Liu, H., Zhong, X., Zhou, J., Zhu, L., Yao, T., Xie, C., Ju, J., Chen, D., Yang, K., Zhao, L., Lu, S., Khanal, S., Jin, J., Liu, W., Liu, B., Du, Y., Yao, X., Lei, Y., et al. (2022). Domino effect of a natural cascade alpine lake system on the Third Pole. PNAS Nexus, 1(3). https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac053