Effects of global change on snakebite envenoming incidence up to 2050: a modelling assessment

Snakebite envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka is projected to decrease by 12–23% from 2010 to 2050, with regional variations influenced by global change factors. The study used a mechanistic model integrating climate, land cover, and population density forecasts under three development scenarios (sustainability, middle-of-the-road, and fossil-fuelled pathways). Findings indicate that while urban areas may see declines due to anthropisation, the central highlands and northern regions could experience localized increases despite overall reductions. These changes are attributed to shifts in snake species abundance and habitat suitability due to climate change. The research highlights the need for collaborative management of neglected tropical diseases and public health issues amid sustainability interventions.

Martín, G., Erinjery, J. J., Ediriweera, D., Goldstein, E., Somaweera, R., de Silva, H. J., Lalloo, D. G., Iwamura, T., & Murray, K. A. (2024). Effects of global change on snakebite envenoming incidence up to 2050: a modelling assessment. The Lancet Planetary Health, 8(8), e533–e544. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00141-4