Environmental susceptibility model for predicting forest fire occurrence in the Western Ghats of India

Forest fires pose significant management challenges in the Western Ghats of India, with their spatial distribution influenced by climate, topography, and vegetation. This study reveals that while highly fire-prone areas are predominantly located on the eastern slopes of the Western Ghats, the accuracy and predictions of fire susceptibility vary significantly across regions. The research employs the MODIS Hotspots database and Maxent algorithm to quantify these environmental controls over 2003–2007, using hierarchical partitioning to assess independent contributions and build parsimonious models for each study area. A two-step approach is proposed: first, identifying large fire-prone areas by focusing on monsoon season climatic conditions that influence fuel moisture content; second, pinpointing the most vulnerable sites within these areas based on local vegetation types.

Renard, Q., Pélissier, R., Ramesh, B. R., & Kodandapani, N. (2012). Environmental susceptibility model for predicting forest fire occurrence in the Western Ghats of India. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 21(4), 368–379. https://doi.org/10.1071/wf10109