Implications of Climate Change on Nature-Based Tourism Demand: A Segmentation Analysis of Glacier Site Visitors in Southeast Iceland

Climate change-induced glacier recession significantly impacts nature-based tourism demand, with visitor responses varying widely depending on the type of environmental change and tourist segment. A study analyzing 565 visitors to Vatnajökull National Park in southeast Iceland found that factors such as accessibility, safety, and amenity—all affected by glacier shrinkage—play crucial roles in shaping visitation patterns. The research combines contingent behavior analysis with multivariate cluster analysis to reveal distinct visitor segments, each responding differently to these changes. These findings underscore the need for proactive planning, education, communication, and product development tailored to visitor segment differences to ensure sustainable tourism amid ongoing glacial transformation.

Welling, J., Árnason, Þ., & Ólafsdóttir, R. (2020). Implications of Climate Change on Nature-Based Tourism Demand: A Segmentation Analysis of Glacier Site Visitors in Southeast Iceland. Sustainability, 12(13), 5338. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12135338