Assessing sea level-rise risks to coastal floodplains in the Kakadu Region, northern Australia, using a tidally driven hydrodynamic model

By 2132, every freshwater floodplain in Kakadu National Park will be exposed to saltwater inundation due to sea-level rise (SLR), according to a new tidally driven hydrodynamic model. The study predicts minimal loss of freshwater habitats by 2030 (–3%), but a dramatic threshold effect by 2070, with 42% of floodplains lost, worsening further by 2100 (–65%). While inland areas may serve as temporary refuges, no part of Kakadu will be spared by the end of the century. The model, using high-resolution LiDAR data and tidal simulations, provides critical insights for managing SLR impacts on this UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Bayliss, P., Saunders, K., Dutra, L. X. C., Melo, L. F. C., Hilton, J., Prakash, M., & Woolard, F. (2016). Assessing sea level-rise risks to coastal floodplains in the Kakadu Region, northern Australia, using a tidally driven hydrodynamic model. Marine and Freshwater Research, 69(7), 1064–1078. https://doi.org/10.1071/mf16049