Tigers on the edge: mortality and landscape change dominate individual-based spatially-explicit simulations of a small tiger population

A small tiger population in Thailand's Dong Phayayen-Khao Yai Forest Complex (DPKY) faces high extinction risk due to landscape changes and mortality patterns, according to individual-based spatially-explicit simulations. The study found that even moderate mortality risks could lead to population declines or extinction, with rates shifting dramatically based on spatial patterns—from 46% to 85% under slightly convex and concave forms, respectively. Road expansion and dam construction significantly worsened outcomes, with combined development leading to 96% extinction risk even when habitat restoration was applied. Adjustments in landscape resistance and population density had minimal impact. These findings highlight the critical need for incorporating spatially-explicit mortality risks into conservation models to accurately assess extinction threats.

Ash, E., Cushman, S. A., Redford, T., Macdonald, D. W., & Kaszta, Ż. (2022). Tigers on the edge: mortality and landscape change dominate individual-based spatially-explicit simulations of a small tiger population. Landscape Ecology, 37(12), 3079–3102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-022-01494-w